November 3, 2021 8:00 AM
 — 
3
 min

Pfizer surprises with strong results and improved annual forecast

buy

Pfizer released excellent third-quarter financials, which showed a 5.5-fold increase in net income and an 8.5-fold increase in revenues. The company's management also improved its annual forecast. Pfizer's quarterly revenue more than doubled to $ 24.094 billion from $ 10.277 billion a year earlier. The consensus forecast of analysts for this indicator was $ 22.576 billion. Net income in July-September was $ 8.146 billion, compared with $ 1.469 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per share increased to $ 1.42 from $ 0.26 a year earlier. Profit excluding one-off factors was fixed at $ 1.24 per share, exceeding the market average forecast of $ 1.08 per share.

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Revenue from the sale of vaccines increased to $ 14.6 billion from $ 1.717 billion, including revenues from the sale of the vaccine against COVID-19, developed in conjunction with the German BioNTech, amounted to $ 13 billion, which exceeded the consensus forecast. The press release notes that more than 75% of the proceeds from the sale of the COVID-19 Comirnaty vaccine came from foreign countries. The company's management said Pfizer plans to meet its goal of supplying at least 2 billion doses of vaccines to poor countries by the end of 2022.

According to new forecasts of Pfizer management, in 2021 the company's profit, excluding one-time factors, will be $ 4.13-4.18 per share, and revenue will increase to $ 81-82 billion. Previously, the company predicted an adjusted profit of $ 3.95-4.05 per share share, revenue - $ 78-80 billion. The forecast for the annual revenue from the sale of the vaccine against COVID-19 was increased by 7.5%, to $ 36 billion from $ 33.5 billion. The company expects that the supply of vaccine Comirnaty this year will reach 2.3 billion doses. Comirnaty's revenues will decline to about $ 29 billion in 2022, Pfizer predicts, based on contracts awarded through mid-October 2021. Pfizer is expected to supply 1.7 billion doses of Comirnaty vaccine in 2022.

We highly appreciate Pfizer's Q3 results and 2022 outlook. We expect Pfizer's revenues and earnings per share to grow at an average rate of 6% and 13%, respectively, over 2020-2025, which will be one of the best results in the pharmaceutical sector in the medium term. Despite its excellent results, improved annual outlook by management and generous dividend yield, Pfizer shares remain markedly undervalued relative to competitors and the sector as a whole. We like the company's business and consider the company's stock to be undervalued. We maintain our fair value estimate for the shares at $ 56 per share and see significant upside potential for capitalization.

Pfizer Inc. is a global biopharmaceutical company with a diverse portfolio of pharma products covering the areas of cardiovascular, anti-infectives, CNS, anti-inflammatory, oncology, metabolic disease, and others. It also has a strong vaccine portfolio. It owns 32% of GSK Consumer and divested its Upjohn business to Mylan in November 2020.

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