October 7, 2021 8:00 AM
 — 
3
 min

PepsiCo increased revenue, but reduced net profit

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PepsiCo increased its revenue by 11.6% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2021, but reduced its bottom line. Revenue increased to $ 20.19 billion from $ 18.09 billion, outperforming the market consensus of $ 19.39 billion. The company posted moderate revenue growth in North America, while revenues in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia skyrocketed by 27-33%. The Covid factor continues to weigh on the company's earnings. Thus, the company's net income for the twelve weeks ended September 4 was $ 2.22 billion, or $ 1.6 per share, compared with $ 2.29 billion, or $ 1.65 per share, received in the comparable period a year earlier. Earnings excluding one-off factors were $ 1.79 per share, better than market consensus of $ 1.73 per share.

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TARGET PRICE:
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For fiscal 2021, PepsiCo predicts 8% organic revenue growth, better than the previously published 6% forecast. At the same time, the rise in adjusted earnings per share is expected to be at least 11% in the region, which in fact is in line with the management's forecast, which was provided earlier. We maintain our forecast for EPS at $ 6.2. However, we are slightly downgrading the indicator for fiscal 2022 to $ 6.62, which translates into approximately 7% YoY growth. Nevertheless, we maintain our valuation of the company's shares at $ 185 per share. At the same time, we admit that we are giving a rather conservative estimate of the shares, since we do not take into account in our models the likely announcement of a buyback of shares, which may take place as early as 2022. In our models, we use the buyback probability only after 2022.

We like PepsiCo's unique business model and the company's position in the global marketplace. As one of the largest food and beverage companies in the world, PepsiCo continues to maintain a strong market position in both snacks and soft drinks. We believe that the PepsiCo product line is correctly positioned in the face of current market trends. This competitive advantage could allow the company to continue to gain market share in the Consumer Packaged Goods category. We view PepsiCo's business prospects positively in the medium term and believe that the company's shares could be an attractive bet on the recovery of global activity after the pandemic.

PepsiCo is the world's leading snack and liquid refreshment beverage company, as well as the #2 CSD company globally. The company has a vast portfolio of brands, including Lay’s, Doritos, Cheetos, Tostitos, and Ruffles within salty snacks, and Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, and Tropicana, within beverages.

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