August 18, 2021 8:00 AM
 — 
3
 min

Lions Gate is a valuable asset amid growing M&A activity in the media industry

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Taking into account Lions Gate's fiscal 1 quarterly (ended June 30) and management comments, we are updating our outlook for the company's key financials for fiscal 2022. We slightly reduce our estimate of the company's revenue from $ 3.95 billion to $ 3.93 billion due to the downward revision of Media Networks revenues, which will be partially offset by an increase in TV program output. Our adjusted FY2022 OIBDA remains virtually unchanged (previously $ 469 million to $ 470 million now), driven by higher AOIBDA for motion pictures (lower direct operating costs), offset in part by lower media network costs and higher corporate costs. That said, our FY2022 Adjusted EPS increased from $ 0.67 to $ 0.87. We maintain our valuation at $ 23 per share.

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We admit that Lions Gate may face significant challenges that are brewing in the media industry, but the company's assets look very competitive compared to most similar media companies. The number of Starz OTT subscribers has increased to 15 million and we believe that by the end of the 2022 fiscal year, the number of subscribers will exceed last year's figures. However, the main driver could be that Lions Gate is an attractive enough asset to acquire, given the renewed interest in M&A in the media. Potential drivers include the launch of new successful TV shows on the Starz platform and an increase in the number of OTT subscribers, especially at the international level.

Lionsgate is a premier next generation global content leader whose feature films, television programming, digital content and premium platforms touch consumers around the world. With its acquisition of Starz, a media and entertainment leader whose flagship STARZ® premium pay service reaches nearly 25 million U.S. subscribers, Lionsgate continues to grow into a vertically integrated global content platform of increasing diversity, reach and scale. The company’s portfolio of assets includes one of the largest independent television businesses in the world, a 16,000-title film and television library, a world-class film business and an expanding global distribution footprint.

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