October 15, 2021 8:00 AM
 — 
3
 min

Good results, but revenue fell short of consensus

buy

Domino's Pizza in the third quarter of fiscal year 2021, which ended on September 12, increased its net profit by 21.5%, but received worse-than-expected revenue, which triggered a drop in quotations, but towards the end of the trading series, the decline in securities was practically bought out. Domino's Pizza's revenue grew 3.1% to $ 998 million versus $ 967.7 million a year earlier, slightly below the consensus forecast of $ 1.04 billion. Net income rose to $ 120.4 million, or $ 3.24 based on share, up from $ 99.1 million, or $ 2.49 per share, received in the comparable period last year. Adjusted earnings were also $ 3.24 per share, better than market expectations of $ 3.11 per share.

TIKR:
DPZ

PRICE:
$475

TARGET PRICE:
$575

UPSIDE
21%

S&P 500
4,445(+0.37%)

WTI СRUDE
82,07(+0.93%)

10Y UST
1,519(0.00%)

BITCOIN
$59,42(+2.42%)

Like-for-like sales in the United States fell 1.9% last quarter versus market consensus of 1.7%, but globally rose 8.8%, better than the 8% consensus. The number of the company's pizzerias has increased by 323 over the past three months, including 45 in the US and 278 in other countries. In Q3, Domino's Pizza bought out 391,000 shares from the market for a total of $ 79.7 million at an average price of $ 521.4 per share. From September 12 to October 12, the company bought back another 205 thousand shares for $ 100 million, or at an average buyback price of $ 487.95 per share. As part of the buyback program, the company may realize the purchase of the remaining shares for $ 820 million, which will support the company's capitalization. The company's board of directors has decided to pay a quarterly dividend of $ 0.94 per share.

We like Domino's business and believe that the company is pursuing an effective long-term strategy that will help the company expand its business not only in the $ 41 billion fast food market, but in the $ 50 billion ready-to-eat food delivery market. We also like a growing share of digital sales, which reached 75% of total revenue, and an increasing number of loyal customers, which together provide the company with a significant array of big data for professional analytics, which will become a valuable asset in the near future. We maintain the current valuation of the company's stock at $ 575.

Domino's is the world's largest pizza restaurant by sales, operating across 85+ global markets. The company operates in 3 segments: Domestic (54% of 2021E gross profits), International (24%), and Supply Chain (22%). DPZ has a history of investing in data analytics, distribution capabilities, and technology to fuel top-line growth, resulting in the best ROIC track record in quick-service. The company's 75%+ digital ordering sales mix is among the highest in the restaurant industry, with ambitions to reach nearly 100% through the implementation of A.I. ordering.

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